New PV Installations Will Remain at High Levels, While the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintains a Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Midday Review]

March 3, 2025, Midday Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract

On the morning of March 3, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract showed a fluctuate upward trend. The opening price was 255,000 yuan/mt, and prices fluctuated upward during the morning session, peaking at 256,400 yuan/mt and finally closing at 255,900 yuan/mt at midday, up 730 yuan/mt or 0.29% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 54,800 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,171 lots to 33,100 lots.

“Compared to previous years, this year’s forecast for China’s PV market roadmap is the most challenging. After extensive discussions and research, we concluded that China’s new PV installations will remain at a high level but will decline compared to last year,” said Bohua Wang, Honorary Chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, at the 2024 PV Development Review and 2025 Outlook Seminar. Wang believes that due to policies such as the "Administrative Measures for Distributed PV Power Generation Development and Construction" and the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy," as well as the time lag in the implementation of these policies across provinces, there is a certain level of wait-and-see sentiment in the PV industry, increasing the uncertainty of 2025 installation expectations. “However, the good news is that the latest industry chain prices have stabilized and rebounded,” Wang analyzed, emphasizing the need to address both supply and demand sides to fundamentally resolve structural imbalances in the PV industry, thereby promoting healthy development and quality upgrades in the sector. Technically, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is fluctuating within the range of 252,000 to 257,000 yuan/mt in the short term. The spot market remains generally sluggish, with most downstream enterprises maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. The market is closely watching the progress of production resumption in the Wa State region of Myanmar.